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United States military designs blueprint for postwar Iraq
By Mark Armstrong
National/World News Co-Editor
FILE PHOTO
Members of the Iraqi army stand at attention before a picture of their leader, Saddam Hussein.
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President George W. Bush’s national security team has assembled a post-war scenario for Iraq, envisaging a plan which includes a heavy military presence in control of the country, military tribunals for senior Iraqi officials, and a swift takeover of Iraqi oil fields to pay for the costs of reconstruction. The plans amount to the most ambitious undertaking to administer a country since the end of World War II.
Administration officials caution that no plans are definite, because it is impossible to predict what the Iraqi political landscape will look like after Saddam’s ouster.
Furthermore, the number of nations participating in the coalition still remains uncertain. But they are keenly aware of the dangers of a long term American presence in a region where anxieties over Western invaders date back to the time of the Crusades.
As one State Department official told Newsweek, “Every day you get past three months, you’ve got to expect peacekeepers to have a bull’s-eye on their head.”
The Bush administration realizes that the last thing they want to emulate in Iraq is the seven-year occupation of Japan that was directed by General Douglas MacArthur from 1945 to 1952.
Officials have further sought to ally concerns that the United States seeks to be a colonial power in Iraq, going so far as to dub General Jay Garner, who will be coordinating reconstruction and humanitarian efforts, as the “senior civilian administrator,” rather than “military governor.”
Among the main features of the plan are the following:
The Pentagon is preparing for at least 18 months of intense military control within Iraq. U.S. forces will be entrusted with keeping the peace, hunting down Saddam’s cohorts, uncovering Iraq’s stockpile of weapons of mass destruction and in the words of one Bush senior advisor, “keeping the country whole.”
Iraqi oil fields will be seized immediately to avoid their destruction. While administration officials have publicly stated that the oil will remain the “patrimony of the Iraqi people,” the debate is still going on behind the scenes as to how conflicting claims to the fields will be settled and what measures will be undertaken to restart the oil fields after military action.
No matter how detailed their plans, officials acknowledge that most of the decisions will have to be made on the ground.
Historical precedents are being taken into consideration, reaching as far back as the American administration of the Philippines after the Spanish-American War and the occupation of post-Nazi Germany.
According to the International Herald Tribune, the administration’s description of its goals notably includes these two objectives: “preserve Iraq as a unitary state, with its territorial integrity intact,” and “prevent unhelpful outside interference, military or nonmilitary,” an apparent warning issued to states neighboring Iraq.
When the idea of an American military administration was first announced, the reaction in the Arab world was swift. “They wanted no American Caesar in Iraq, no symbol of a colonial governor or commander,” said the International Herald Tribune.
“The last thing we need,” said one senior official, “is someone walking around with a corncob pipe, telling Iraqis how to run a government.”
The administration has hence worked on establishing a hybrid command with a U.S. military commander in charge of security, preventing revenge attacks, and seeking out WMD, with a civilian administrator of essentially equal influence that would rebuild the nation’s schools and restart the economy. It is still unclear as to whether the administrator would be an American or an appointee of the United Nations.
Regardless, it is widely assumed that during the first chaotic months, the military commander would wield supreme authority. “Remember, you will have decapitated the command and control for the Iraqi military forces,” said one Defense Department official. “Who is going to make sure that score settling does not break out, that there are not fights between the various ethnic communities?
It is going to have to be the U.S. military for some time, and if there is a military command, there will certainly be a military commander.
There is no more sensitive question for the administration than how to deal with Iraqi oil reserves and the Bush team has been working on a contingency plan in the event that Saddam decides to systematically destroy the oil fields.
Bush has also been warning for months that generals who obey any orders to unleash chemical or biological weapons will be punished as war criminals.
Already, the CIA has drawn up lists of Saddam’s top commanders, including his sons and other relatives, trusted advisors from his hometown of Tikrit, and the heads of his security agencies who will be put on trial.
People within the Iraqi hierarchy who cooperate in bringing down the government will be promised leniency. The approach is part of an effort to encourage a coup and split factions away from the regime.
The draft of the White House proposal notes that governmental entities closely identified and associated with Saddam’s regime such as his revolutionary courts and his intelligence organizations will be eliminated, while the rest of the structure will be reformed and kept.
The Bush administration plans to initiate relief efforts in certain parts of the country within days of an invasion.
For the Pentagon, mass reprisals including a possible civil war or a postwar bloodbath are the most serious concerns.
During the Persian Gulf War in 1991, antigovernment rebels briefly assumed power in at least a dozen Iraqi cities and brutally murdered Baathist Party officials in the largely Shiite areas.
Another potential trouble spot is Iraq’s northern border with Turkey. As its price for supplying Washington with a base from which to launch a dual invasion from the north, the Turkish government as won a U.S. agreement that would permit it to move upwards of 20,000 troops into the region dominated by the Kurds. But perhaps the most monumental task for the United States will be trying to purge the military and security services, not to mention the civil and judicial offices, all of which are riddled with Saddam’s minions.
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